House District 87
Central PA · currently held by R (Thomas H. Kutz)
Forecast
91%
chance Thomas Kutz (R) wins
- Democrat
- Jessica Lynne St Clair
- Republican
- Thomas Kutz
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+10.1 (90% range R+22.7 to D+2.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 9.3%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -11.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+4.8 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -0.5 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -1.9 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+10.0 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+10.1 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+11.5 | R+1.8 | -9.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+6.4 | D+15.0 | -8.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+9.2 | D+5.0 | -14.2 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+12.7 | D+1.1 | -13.9 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+23.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -12.4, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Thomas H. Kutz (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $12,944 · R $210,575
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | John Patrick Flood Jr | Thomas H Kutz | R+23.4 |
| 2022 | Kristal Markle | Thomas Holden Kutz | R+16.6 |
| 2020 | Nicole C Miller | William Gregory Rothman | R+11.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 9% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.1 points.