House District 76
Central PA · currently held by R (Stephanie Borowicz)
Forecast
100%
chance Stephanie Paige Borowicz (R) wins
- Democrat
- Sara Elizabeth Eggler
- Republican
- Stephanie Paige Borowicz
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+26.0 (90% range R+38.7 to R+13.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -33.1 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+26.4 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.7 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -0.2 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+26.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.7 |
| Final expected margin | R+26.0 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+36.8 | R+1.8 | -35.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+22.2 | D+15.0 | -37.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+28.9 | D+5.0 | -33.9 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+34.6 | D+1.1 | -35.7 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+38.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -27.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Stephanie Borowicz (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $19,999 · R $25,751
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Denise I Maris | Stephanie Paige Borowicz | R+38.7 |
| 2022 | Denise Maris | Stephanie Paige Borowicz | R+34.8 |
| 2020 | Joseph Waltz | Stephanie Paige Borowicz | R+31.0 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.7 points.