House District 168
Collar counties · currently held by D (Lisa A. Borowski)
Forecast
100%
chance Lisa Anne Borowski (D) wins
- Democrat
- Lisa Anne Borowski
- Republican
- Kathryn M L Buckley
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+29.1 (90% range D+16.4 to D+41.6)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +20.9 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+27.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.3 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+30.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -1.7 |
| Final expected margin | D+29.0 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+20.4 | R+1.8 | +22.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+35.1 | D+15.0 | +20.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+21.4 | D+5.0 | +16.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+23.8 | D+1.1 | +22.6 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+16.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +21.6, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Lisa A. Borowski (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Lisa Anne Borowski | Kathryn M L Buckley | D+16.2 |
| 2022 | Lisa Borowski | Christopher B. Quinn | D+12.1 |
| 2020 | Debra A Ciamacca | Christopher B Quinn | R+2.0 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -1.7 points.