House District 85
Central PA · currently held by R (David H. Rowe) · uncontested
Forecast
100%
chance David Hummer Rowe (R) wins
- Democrat
- — (no candidate)
- Republican
- David Hummer Rowe
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+32.1 (90% range R+44.8 to R+19.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -39.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+32.5 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +3.3 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+32.1 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | R+32.1 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+41.9 | R+1.8 | -40.2 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+28.7 | D+15.0 | -43.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+37.8 | D+5.0 | -42.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+42.8 | D+1.1 | -43.9 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+43.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -32.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- David H. Rowe (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Nicholas Samuel Jacobson | David Hummer Rowe | R+43.7 |
| 2022 | nan | David Hummer Rowe | uncontested |
| 2020 | Kathleen M Evans | David Hummer Rowe | R+36.3 |