House District 31
Collar counties · currently held by D (Perry S. Warren) · uncontested
Forecast
100%
chance Perry Sinclair Warren Jr. (D) wins
- Democrat
- Perry Sinclair Warren Jr.
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+30.2 (90% range D+17.5 to D+42.8)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +18.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+25.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.4 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+30.1 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+30.1 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+15.4 | R+1.8 | +17.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+32.2 | D+15.0 | +17.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+18.0 | D+5.0 | +13.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+18.1 | D+1.1 | +17.0 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+17.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +23.1, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Perry S. Warren (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Perry Sinclair Warren Jr. | Bernard Charles Sauer | D+17.7 |
| 2022 | Perry Sinclair Warren Jr | Bernard C. Sauer | D+21.4 |
| 2020 | Perry Warren | Charles S. Adcock | D+19.4 |