House District 96
Central PA · currently held by D (Nikki Rivera)
Forecast
100%
chance Stephanie Nichole Rivera (D) wins
- Democrat
- Stephanie Nichole Rivera
- Republican
- Babita L Rusyn
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+31.6 (90% range D+19.1 to D+44.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +23.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+30.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.4 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+34.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -2.6 |
| Final expected margin | D+31.6 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+21.5 | R+1.8 | +23.3 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+37.3 | D+15.0 | +22.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+25.1 | D+5.0 | +20.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+22.6 | D+1.1 | +21.5 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+20.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +26.1, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Nikki Rivera (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Stephanie Nichole Rivera | Eric Beezer | D+20.7 |
| 2022 | P Michael Sturla | April Dawn Weaver | D+22.2 |
| 2020 | P Michael Sturla | nan | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -2.6 points.