House District 20
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by D (Emily Kinkead)
Forecast
100%
chance Emily Kinkead (D) wins
- Democrat
- Emily Kinkead
- Republican
- Joseph Blaise Aguglia II
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+30.0 (90% range D+17.4 to D+42.6)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +21.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+27.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.3 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+32.0 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -2.0 |
| Final expected margin | D+29.9 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+17.8 | R+1.8 | +19.6 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+38.1 | D+15.0 | +23.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+27.2 | D+5.0 | +22.2 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+16.2 | D+1.1 | +15.0 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+18.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +23.9, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Emily Kinkead (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Emily Kinkead | Matthew J Kruth | D+18.5 |
| 2022 | Emily Kinkead | Matthew J Kruth | D+22.2 |
| 2020 | Emily Deborah Kinkead | nan | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -2.0 points.