House District 57
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Eric R. Nelson)
Forecast
99%
chance Eric R Nelson (R) wins
- Democrat
- Robert B Francis
- Republican
- Eric R Nelson
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+17.7 (90% range R+30.5 to R+5.0)
- Chance of flipping
- 1.2%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -20.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+13.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -2.1 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+18.6 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.8 |
| Final expected margin | R+17.7 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+22.6 | R+1.8 | -20.9 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+1.1 | D+15.0 | -16.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+14.8 | D+5.0 | -19.9 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+24.0 | D+1.1 | -25.1 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Eric R. Nelson (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $2,613 · R $50,020
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Eric R. Nelson | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Eric R Nelson | uncontested |
| 2020 | nan | Eric R Nelson | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 2% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.8 points.